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Approximation of periodicity in sunspot formation of and prediction of the 25th cycle

机译:太阳黑子形成的周期性近似和第25周期的预测

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The empirical parameters of functions approximating solar activity cycles 8-23 are used. These parameters show the position of the cycle on the time axis (the start time) and its shape, which is characterized by the extension along the time axes and activity index. A statistical connections was found between two shape parameters of the cycle (the so-called Waldmeier effect) and between the extension of the cycle growth branch and the start time of the following cycle. A connection between the parameters of the given and future cycles has been obtained for a function approximating the "secular" variations in the cycle amplitude. The aforementioned empirical relationships can be stated in the form of three equations that contain the parameters of the current and future cycles. Solving this system, we obtain estimates for three parameters of the function approximating the next cycle. For the 25th cycle, it was found that the maximum of the smoothed Wolf number 116 is expected in March/April 2026; the duration of the activity growth branch is 4.16 years.
机译:使用近似太阳活动周期8-23的函数的经验参数。这些参数显示了周期在时间轴上的位置(开始时间)及其形状,其特征是沿时间轴的延伸和活动指数。在周期的两个形状参数(所谓的Waldmeier效应)之间以及周期增长分支的扩展与下一个周期的开始时间之间发现了统计联系。对于近似于循环幅度的“长期”变化的函数,已经获得了给定循环和未来循环的参数之间的联系。可以以三个方程的形式陈述上述经验关系,这些方程包含当前和未来周期的参数。解决这个系统,我们获得了近似于下一个周期的函数三个参数的估计值。对于第25个周期,发现预计在2026年3月/ 4月将获得最大的平滑Wolf数116。活动增长分支的持续时间为4.16年。

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