A model for real-time failure prognosis based on hidden Markov model and belief rule base

摘要

As one of most important aspects of condition-based maintenance (CBM), failure prognosis has attracted an increasing attention with the growing demand for higher operational efficiency and safety in industrial systems. Currently there are no effective methods which can predict a hidden failure of a system real-time when there exist influences from the changes of environmental factors and there is no such an accurate mathematical model for the system prognosis due to its intrinsic complexity and operating in potentially uncertain environment. Therefore, this paper focuses on developing a new hidden Markov model (HMM) based method which can deal with the problem. Although an accurate model between environmental factors and a failure process is difficult to obtain, some expert knowledge can be collected and represented by a belief rule base (BRB) which is an expert system in fact. As such, combining the HMM with the BRB, a new prognosis model is proposed to predict the hidden failure real-time even when there are influences from the changes of environmental factors. In the proposed model, the HMM is used to capture the relationships between the hidden failure and monitored observations of a system. The BRB is used to model the relationships between the environmental factors and the transition probabilities among the hidden states of the system including the hidden failure, which is the main contribution of this paper. Moreover, a recursive algorithm for online updating the prognosis model is developed. An experimental case study is examined to demonstrate the implementation and potential applications of the proposed real-time failure prognosis method.