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Public information and electoral bias

机译:新闻和选举偏见

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We present a theory of voting that predicts that elections are more likely to be close, and voter turnout is more likely to be high when citizens possess better public information about the composition of the electorate. These findings suggest that providing more information to potential voters about aggregate political preferences (e.g., through pre-election polls or expert forecasts) may undermine the democratic process. Our analysis reveals that if the distribution of political preferences is common knowledge, then the unique type-symmetric equilibrium leads to a stark neutrality result in which each alternative is equally likely to win the election. By contrast, when citizens are ignorant about the preference distribution, the majority is more likely to win the election and expected voter turnout is lower. Welfare is, therefore, unambiguously higher when citizens possess less information about the preference distribution.
机译:我们提出一种投票理论,该理论预测,当公民掌握有关选民组成的更好的公共信息时,选举更有可能会接近,选民的投票率很可能很高。这些发现表明,向潜在选民提供更多有关总体政治偏好的信息(例如,通过大选前的民意调查或专家预测)可能会破坏民主进程。我们的分析表明,如果政治偏好的分布是公知常识,那么独特的类型对称均衡会导致明显的中立结果,其中每种选择都有可能赢得选举。相比之下,当公民对偏好分配一无所知时,多数人更有可能赢得选举,而预期的选民投票率会更低。因此,当公民对偏好分配的信息较少时,福利无疑会更高。

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