The Market

摘要

The thermal coal spot market lifted in November with Newcastle 6,000 NAR increasing by 3% to US$82.4/t FOB andRichards Bay 6,000NAR stable at US$82.2/t FOB. Newcastle 5,500 NAR increased by 6.7% to US$67.7/t FOB. Despitepromising moves in the spot markets, AME has lowered its 2014 JFY annual contract price forecast to US$90/t FOB, whichreflects the current state of oversupply in the seaborne market.While supply rationalisation has been a continuing theme throughout 2013, most of the major producers increased supply.Lower seaborne prices, starting with the 2013 JFY contract price at US$95/t but ever-present low spot prices, wereessentially caused by a global seaborne supply surplus. The current year’s supply surplus could be put down to two factors.Firstly, there has been expansion from projects that have been committed and in construction during the last three years.The record prices witnessed in 2010, 2011 and 2012 enabled producers to finance both greenfield and brownfieldexpansions such as Cerrejon Coal, Glencore Xstrata’s Mangoola and Rio Tinto’s (now Glencore Xstrata’s) Clermont.Secondly, US thermal coal exports have remained stubbornly high, with monthly exports in line with 2012 records.