The joint effect of government crop insurance and loan programmes on the demand for futures hedging.

摘要

This research re-evaluates producer risk management decisions regarding the choice of forward pricing strategies when governmentally subsidized crop insurance designs and price supports are available. An analytical model is developed to illustrate the substitution of loan programmes for hedging. In particular, we find that this relationship is conditioned on yield levels. Also, a numerical analysis is conducted that incorporates futures prices, basis and yield variability. Three alternative crop insurance designs are evaluated. Optimal futures hedge ratios are derived for expected utility-maximizing soyabean farmers. Our results suggest that government programme levels profoundly alter the farmer's optimal strategy. We also find that apparently speculative behaviour is risk-minimizing when high loan rates and revenue insurance are combined.