Modelling intercrop management impact on runoff and erosion in a continuous maize cropping system: Part II. Model Pareto multi-objective calibration and long-term scenario analysis using disaggregated rainfall

摘要

In order to evaluate the impact of intercrop management on runoff and erosion in a continuous maize cropping system, the plot scale, continuous and process-based erosion model (CREHDYS) developed previously must be calibrated accounting for its two main outputs: runoff and sediment loss. To do that, a global Pareto multi-objective calibration was applied to these two potentially conflicting objectives, considering daily runoff and periodical erosion rates, for two sites with different slopes and soil textures. This revealed a trade-off between both objectives. The large resulting Pareto uncertainty regarding parameters did not translate into a large predictive uncertainty of daily runoff but resulted into a large uncertainty on erosion prediction. Globally, model results were satisfactory with regard to daily runoff prediction (Nash-Sutcliffe index varying within the Pareto solution set from 0.65 to 0.91 for calibration and 0.64 to 0.77 for validation period) and relatively satisfactory for periodical erosion. However, the small number of available data points (three) for model validation in terms of periodical erosion prediction was not sufficient to ensure a proper validation. The calibrated model was in turn used to perform a scenario analysis of the long-term hydrological and erosive impact of inter-cropping period management in a continuous maize cropping system, using disaggregated rainfall. The long-term simulations mainly revealed that, with regard to the erosion prevention during the inter-cropping period, planting a winter cover crop is a better option than reduced tillage with a cultivator (0-12 cm), even if the cover is destroyed early (1 January). As compared with the situation of a bare heavily crusted soil with two semi-permanent wheel tracks, reduced tillage led to an erosion reduction from 90 to 97%, an early cover destruction (1 January) to an erosion decrease from 92 to 98% and a cover destroyed on 1 March or later to an average soil loss reduction from 96 to 99%.