Ingrowth model for pyrenean oak stands in north-western Spain using continuous forest inventory data

摘要

In this paper, a two stage ingrowth model is presented for predicting periodic, 10 years ingrowth for pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd.) grown in medium to fully stocked coppice stands in north-western Spain. Data from the Spanish National ForestInventory was used to develop the model, extracting the information from two inventories taken in 222 permanent plots. The first stage of the model predicts the probability of ingrowth occurrence, and in the second stage, the number of recruits is predicted using a conditional model. Both models were biologically realistic and presented logical behaviour. The ingrowth occurrence probability model was dependent on quadratic mean diameter and average height. The recruitment quantification model includedstand density and average diameter as explanatory variables. Although the occurrence probability of ingrowth was predicted correctly in 71.7% of cases, the predictions of the number of recruitment are poorer, yielding a coefficient of determination of 0.358. The evaluation criteria included qualitative and quantitative examinations and a testing with independent data from another region. The proposed ingrowth model is the first to be developed for mediterranean oak species in Spain and is an essential feature in any stand growth system.