Are hospitalizations for rotavirus gastroenteritis associated with meteorologic factors?

摘要

Local climatic factors might explain seasonal patterns of rotavirus infections, but few models have been proposed to determine the effects of weather conditions on rotavirus activity. Here, we study the association of meteorologic factors with rotavirus activity, as determined by the number of children hospitalized for rotavirus gastroenteritis on the Mediterranean island of Mallorca (Spain). We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children aged 0-5 years admitted for rotavirus gastroenteritis between January 2000 and December 2010. The number of rotavirus hospitalizations was correlated to temperature, humidity, rainfall, atmospheric pressure, water vapor pressure, wind speed, and solar radiation using regression and time-series techniques. A total of 311 patients were hospitalized for rotavirus gastroenteritis in the 11-year study period, with a seasonal pattern from December to June, and a peak incidence in February. After multiple regressions, weekly rotavirus activity could be explained in 82 % of cases (p0.001) with a one-week lag meteorologic model. Rotavirus activity was negatively associated to temperature and positively associated to atmospheric pressure, solar radiation, and wind speed. Temperature and solar radiation were the factors that contributed most to the model, with a peak rotavirus activity at 9°C and 800 10KJ/m2, respectively. In conclusion, hospitalization for rotavirus was strongly associated with mean temperature, but an association of rotavirus activity with solar radiation, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed was also demonstrated. This model predicted more than 80 % of rotavirus hospitalizations.