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Liquidity risk, economic development, and the effects of monetary policy

机译:流动性风险,经济发展以及货币政策的影响

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Empirical evidence indicates that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, inflation is negatively related to economic activity. By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation countries. We present a neoclassical growth model with money in which the incidence of liquidity risk is inversely related to aggregate capital formation. Interestingly, there may be multiple monetary steady-states where the effects of monetary policy vary. In poor economies, the financial system is highly distorted and higher rates of money growth are associated with less capital formation. In contrast, in advanced economies, a Tobin effect is observed. Since inflation exacerbates distortions from a coordination failure in the low-capital steady-state, individuals become much more exposed to liquidity risk. Consequently, optimal monetary policy depends on the level of development.
机译:经验证据表明,许多国家的货币政策并非中立。特别是在高通胀的经济体中,通胀与经济活动负相关。相比之下,低通胀国家的通货膨胀可能与产出呈正相关。我们提出了一种新古典货币增长模型,其中流动性风险的发生与总资本形成成反比。有趣的是,可能存在多种货币稳态,其中货币政策的影响各不相同。在贫穷的经济体中,金融系统高度扭曲,货币增长率较高与资本形成较少有关。相反,在发达经济体中,观察到了托宾效应。由于通货膨胀加剧了低资本稳态下协调失灵的扭曲,因此个人面临更大的流动性风险。因此,最优货币政策取决于发展水平。

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