Application of GIS and modelling in health risk assessment for urban road mobility

摘要

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributes to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer and physical injuries. This paper presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Haiphong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and geographic information system approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-referenced data. The study shows that health burdens due to particulate matter in Haiphong include 1,200 extra deaths for the situation in 2007. This figure can double by 2020 as the result of the fast economic development the city pursues. In addition, 51,000 extra hospital admissions and more than 850,000 restricted activity days are expected by 2020.