Useless Arithmetic:Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future

摘要

Reviewed by Kristan Cockerill,Assistant Director for Research,Sustainable Development Program,Appalachian State University,ASU Box 32080,Boone,NC 28608-2080;(e-mail) cockerillkm@appstate.edu Humankind has a long history of seeking definitive answers to explain the complex systems operating on our home planet.Our tremendous success in calculating phenomena like atomic behavior and planetary movement has given us a false sense of confidence in our ability to calculate any and all phenomena.Our quest for definitive solutions to perceived problems has generated a sense of "physics envy" and driven many disciplines toward math-based predictive models.Orrin Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis thoroughly discuss that our confidence in such models is misplaced.As a result,we are potentially increasing risk from natural hazards and have created a venue for ludicrous policy-based demands,such as certifying safety for tens of thousands of years at the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository.