Hazard investigation of the Portillo Rock Avalanche site, central Andes, Chile, using an integrated field mapping and numerical modelling approach

摘要

This paper reports a detailed rock slope hazard investigation of the Portillo Rock Avalanche site located in the rugged mountains of the Andean Cordillera of central Chile. The site is important as it lies along the International Santiago- Mendoza Highway Corridor connecting Chile and Argentina, and a major ski resort is located on its deposits. A number of large lobate-shaped diamicton deposits were mapped and dated by cosmogenic nuclides (~(36)Cl), with the results showing that they correspond to two significant prehistoric rockslide events. An integrated field mapping and numerical modelling investigation was subsequently carried out to assess the threat posed to the area by further rocksliding activity. Distinctelement modelling was used to back analyze the failure mechanism and identify the geological model that best reproduced the Portillo Rock Avalanche failure surface. Results show that a stress-controlled failure at the toe of the slope followed by sliding along volcaniclastic bedding was the likely failure mechanism. A 3-D dynamic runout analysis was carried out to back analyze which combinations of rheologies, material properties and rockslide sequencing were best able to reproduce the current distribution of rockslide deposits. Results indicate that two separate sliding events originating from different sources had occurred, with each involving different combinations of frictional and Voellmy rheologies depending on the level of entrainment that occurred along each travel path. Insights gained from the back analysis were then used to carry out a forward analysis to assess the potential for a recurring major rockslide under several different triggering scenarios. Results suggest that a low probability M 7.8 earthquake would be required to trigger another rockslide from the original source area. The rock slope was otherwise found to be stable, even following high precipitation events. Nevertheless, runout simulations for the estimated large- magnitude earthquake-triggered rockslide volume showed that for both a highly frictional and non-saturated path (i.e. dry season) and a snow covered path (winter), the leading edge of the flow would override part of the International Santiago-Mendoza Corridor with the debris coming to rest in a flat-lying area in the upper part of the valley. Overall, the results from this integrated hazard assessment suggest that the hazard level is low.