China's targets for reducing the intensity of CO_2 emissions by 2020

摘要

This paper estimated CO_2 emissions based on the IPCC reference approach under five scenarios that consider China's economic and energy development strategy. Based on the LDMI method, the contributions of per-capita production value, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy mix and coefficients of discharge to CO_2 emissions were analyzed in nine carbon-intensive industries. The emission reduction target for nine industries and five influencing factors were allocated, using scenarios in which China's emission reduction target is not realized. The results show that the reduction target can be realized completely if energy intensity and the share of non-fossil fuel use in primary energy consumption can reach the objectives of China's mid and long-term strategic. There will be uncertainly if the share of non-fossil fuel use does not increase to 15%. And the task of reducing emissions in the industry of Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals is the most arduous among the nine industries considered.