Global crude distillation capacity is forecast to rise by 10.6 mb/d between 2007-2012. New investments add 9.1 mb/d of crude distillation capacity and existing refineries in North America, Europe and the Pacific are assumed to add a further 1.5 mb/d through capacity creep. Capacity growth remains heavily skewed towards 2011-2012. 3.3 mb/d of new capacity is due to start in this period, from a few large projects. These could be subject to additional delays if refinery economics were to deteriorate, or contractor-related bottlenecks were to increase in the intervening period, materially altering the 2012 product supply outlook.
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