Estimation of flood quantiles at gauged and ungauged sites of the four major rivers of Punjab, Pakistan

摘要

The paper illustrates the results of regional flood frequency analysis of eleven sites of the four major rivers of Punjab, Pakistan. The discordancy measure (D (i) ) shows that none of the site, in the cluster of eleven sites, is discordant. Timing of the flood occurrences has been used, initially, for the formation of homogeneous region, but the heterogeneity measure (H) has shown a small amount of heterogeneity. To reduce the amount of heterogeneity, a subjective adjustment has been made considering the fact that a couple of site is located at the confluence of rivers. As a result, two homogeneous regions have been identified, i.e., Region 1 having nine sites and Region 2 containing couple of site located at the confluence of the rivers. In order to find out suitable candidate(s) for regional distribution L-moment ration diagram, average weighted distance and Z (DIST) statistics have been used. To obtain the flood quantiles at ungauged sites, multiple linear regression relationship has been developed, between mean of annual maximum peak flows (AMPF) at gauged sites (l (1)) and best subset of site characteristics, i.e., average rainfall during monsoon and catchment area of the rivers to which the sites belong. A cross-validation with the observed AMPF from 2010 to 2014 and historical data (the highest of the AMPF attained so far at various sites of Region 1) showed that the estimates based on this model/procedure are accurate and useful, especially for the longer return periods.