Models of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources based on Odum's energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustainability principle

摘要

This paper presents a theoretical model of withdrawing resources based on Odum's energy systems diagrams. According to the theory of a general pulsing principle, withdrawing resources changes in time shifting from the initial phases of growth and maturity to the phases of descent and low energy restoration. A simulation was performed in order to hypothesize potential future trends of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources and to show some aspects of their sustainability-unsustainability, respectively. According to Odum's theory, after the rapid growth of the last century, our civilization is living in a climax transition phase and it is now approaching a descent phase. A "way down" will be necessary due to the exhaustion of non-renewable and to the limited use of renewable resources. An integrated "renew-non-renew" model was developed by Odum to show how a "business as usual" trend will bring us to a drastic transition to a world that uses scarce renewable resources. Nevertheless, a different choice is possible, based on Daly's concept of quasi-sustainability that can inspire a new model. The latter argued that the exploitation of a non-renewable resource must be paired with a compensating investment in a renewable substitute. Our model shows that we can use non-renewable resources better to considerably improve our capacity of capturing renewable resources in the future. We present this as a necessary condition to address a sustainable environmental policy.