An aggregated multivariate regression land-use model and its application to land-use change processes in the Daqing region (northeast China)

摘要

Land-use process is a nonlinear dynamic change, which concerns many related factors and interrelations ecologically, geographically, economically and socially. For a clear explanation of the mechanism of land change, a feasible dynamic model is designed on the basis of the land-use situation in Daqing area, where is particularly characterized by an expansion of the local petroleum industry and a decrease and degeneration of natural and agricultural ecosystem. To model this land-use process, we introduced an aggregated multivariate regression model which approached the topic much simpler and mathematically straightforward for a zero-dimensional space. Tylor series was used in the model to express the change of each land type in every time step, all the variables impacting the land-use change were integrated as dominate driving forces which reflect the comprehensive influence of Daqing's economic environment.