Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone

摘要

The unprecedented sovereign debt crisis across the eurozone has prompted a new generation of models with 'self-fulfilling' attacks on public debt. The model presented in this paper shows that multiple equilibria arise as investors have no direct information, and form heterogeneous rational beliefs, about the government's sustainable limit of the solvency primary balance. If beliefs of insolvency are sufficiently large, then the government is bound to default, although initial solvency conditions are satisfied. Several issues are discussed concerning the role of initial conditions, fiscal shocks and the policy options to escape from the default domain.