Changes in Climatic Characteristics of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Land in the 21st Century: Assessments with the IAP RAS Climate Model

摘要

Assessments of future changes in the climate of Northern Hemisphere extratropical land regions have been made with the IAP RAS climate model (CM) of intermediate complexity (which includes a detailed scheme of thermo- and hydrophysical soil processes) under prescribed greenhouse and sulfate anthropogenic forcing from observational data for the 19th and 20th centuries and from the SRES B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios for the 21st century. The annual mean warming of the extratropical land surface has been found to reach 2-5 K (3-10 K)by the middle (end) of the 21st century relative to 1961-1990, depending on the anthropogenic forcing scenario, with larger values in North America than in Europe. Winter warming is greater than summer warming. This is expressed in a decrease of 1-4 K (or more) in the amplitude of the annual harmonic of soil-surface temperature in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia and North America. The total area extent of perennially frozen ground S_p in the IAP RAS CM changes only slightly until the late 20th century, reaching about 21 million km~2, and then decreases to 11-12 million km~2 in 2036-2065 and 4-8 million km~2 in 2071-2100. In the late 21st century, near-surface permafrost is expected to remain only in Tibet and in central and eastern Siberia. In these regions, depths of seasonal thaw exceed 1 m (2m) under the SRES B1 (A1B or A2) scenario. The total land area with seasonal thaw or cooling is expected to decrease from the current value of 54-55 million km~2 to 38-42 in the late 21st century. The area of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in February is also reduced from the current value of 45-49 million km~2 to 31-37 million km~2. For the basins of major rivers in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, runoff is expected to increase in central and eastern Siberia. In European Russia and in southern Europe, runoff is projected to decrease. In western Siberia (the Ob watershed), runoff would increase under the SRES A1B and A2 scenarios until the 2050s-2070s, then it would decrease to values close to present-day ones; under the anthropogenic forcing scenario SRES Bl, the increase in runoff will continue up to the late 21st century. Total runoff from Eurasian rivers into the Arctic Ocean in the IAP RAS CM in the 21st century will increase by 8-9% depending on the scenario. Runoff from the North American rivers into the Arctic Ocean has not changed much throughout numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM.