Reliability modeling and prediction using classical and Bayesian approach

摘要

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide the maintenance personnel with a methodology for modeling and estimating the reliability of critical machine systems using the historical data of their inter-failure times. Design/methodology/approach – The failure patterns of five different machine systems were modeled with NHPP-log linear process and HPP belonging to stochastic point process for predicting their reliability in future time frames. Besides the classical approach, Bayesian approach was also used involving Jeffreys's invariant non-informative independent priors to derive the posterior densities of the model parameters of NHPP-LLP and HPP with a view to estimating the reliability of the machine systems in future time intervals. Findings – For at least three machine systems, Bayesian approach gave lower reliability estimates and a larger number of (expected) failures than those obtained by the classical approach. Again, Bayesian estimates of the probability that "ROCOF (rate of occurrence of failures) would exceed its upper threshold limit" in future time frames were uniformly higher for these machine systems than those obtained with the classical approach. Practical implications – This study indicated that, the Bayesian approach would give more realistic estimates of reliability (in future time frames) of the machine systems, which had dependent inter-failure times. Such information would be helpful to the maintenance team for deciding on appropriate maintenance strategy. Originality/value – With the help of Bayesian approach, the posterior densities of the model parameters were found analytically by considering Jeffreys's invariant non-informative independent prior. The case study would serve to motivate the maintenance teams to model the failure patterns of the repairable systems making use of the historical data on inter-failure times and estimating their reliability in future time frames.