A new reliability analysis method for horizontal machining centre based on proportion intensity model and nonlinear mixed-effects model

摘要

The reasonable reliability model is needed to best approximate the engineering reality and capture the physical intrinsic underlying mechanisms of the repairable systems. Traditional reliability models are inadequate in modelling the field failure data, as they ignore individual copy-specific random effects and correlation among repeated measurements. This paper presents an integrated method based on modified proportional intensity model and nonlinear mixed-effect model. This method can capture the intrinsic characteristic of engineering systems and evaluate quantitatively the effects of deterioration and repair on the reliability of equipment. Especially, the analytical solutions of reliability and the failure rate of equipment can be obtained by this method. Then, a case study is presented based on field failure data for 14 horizontal machining centres (HMC) over one year. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of this integrated method to analyse the reliability of multi-copy repairable systems.