A stochastic computation model for the creep damage of furnace tube

摘要

The service life of high temperature furnace tubes varies significantly in engineering practice. Predicting the service life of the tubes has thus long been a concern. Due to the difficulties in defining variability of creep data, previous research has mainly concentrated on deterministic creep damage models. In order to study the random nature of service life, a new stochastic creep damage model is proposed I this paper. A comparison with results calculated by use of the Monte Carlo method verifies the creep damage model. The randomness of IC creep damage is demonstrated with a calculation on HK-40 furnace tubes which provides an effective means to assess the reliability of the furnace tubes.