Poultry workers shouldn't serve as canaries. journal of the International Commission on Occupational Health

摘要

Avian (H5N1) influenza's potential to trigger a pandemic is alarming. So far, human disease has been rare (only 222 cases so far, with 129 deaths) and remote (nearly all in Asia). The current virus has not demonstrated sustained spread from human to human, and victims so far have all had contact with sick birds. Unfortunately, the present H5N1 virus is not what we need to fear.A new influenza emerges when its DNA combines with ordinarywintertime "flu." If (or when) this strain develops, the reasonable fear is of a highly transmissible virus with frequently fatal consequences. The resulting novel germ could spread through our species unimpeded by any immunity, and kill millions before effective vaccination brings it under control. This would no longer be an "avian" influenza, but an accidental hybrid, an intensely lethal human pathogen.