Utilising key climate element variability for the prediction of future climate change using a support vector machine model

摘要

This paper proposes a support vector machine (SVM) model to advance the prediction accuracy of global land-ocean temperature (GLOT), which is globally significant for understanding the future pattern of climate change. The GLOT dataset was collected from NASA's GLOT index (C) (anomaly with base: 1951-1980) for the period 1880 to 2013. We categorise the dataset by decades to describe the behaviour of the GLOT within those decades. The dataset was used to build an SVM Model to predict future values of the GLOT. The performance of the model was compared with a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) and validated statistically. The SVM was found to perform significantly better than the MLPNN in terms of mean square error and root mean square error, although computational times for the two models are statistically equal. The SVM model was used to project the GLOT from the pre-existing NASA's GLOT index (C) (anomaly with base: 1951-1980) for the next 20 years (2013-2033). The projection results of our study can be of value to policy makers, such as the intergovernmental organisations related to environmental studies, e. g., the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC).