Probabilistic modelling of the role of the human factor in the Helicopter-Landing-Ship (HLS) situation

摘要

This analysis contains a novel attempt to quantify, on the probabilistic basis, the role that the human factor plays, in terms of the total operation time, in the Helicopter-Landing-Ship (HLS) situation. The considered operation time includes the time required for the officer-on-ship-board and the helicopter pilot to make their go-ahead decisions, and the time needed for the actual landing. It is assumed, for the sake of simplicity, that these times could be approximated by the Rayleigh law, while the duration of the lull follows the normal (Gaussian) law. Safe landing can be expected if the probability that it takes place during the lull time in the sea condition is sufficiently high. We develop a simple, easy-to-use and physically meaningful model to evaluate this probability. Our model can be used in the risk analysis of the landing situation, as well as in the probabilistic assessment of the strength of the helicopter undercarriage, if necessary. The model can be employed also when developing guidelines for personnel training and particularly when there is a need (intent) to establish (specify) the acceptable (allowable) decision making time.