Risk assessment and human performance modelling: the need for an integrated systems approach

摘要

One of the difficulties in completing scientific experiments aboard the International Space Station (ISS) is anticipating all of the effects of the operational environment on the procedural sequences. Human Performance Modelling (HPM) and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)-like approaches could together generate such predictions for the space life sciences experimentation application domain. An informal risk assessment was completed through Subject Matter Expert (SME) interviews on procedural completion and potential for erroneous performance. The results suggested there would be significant differences in the performance and risk of completing a series of experiments sequentially as compared to completing the experiments in parallel. As a result, an initial HPM was developed to test predictions of simulated operator workload for a complex space-related biological experiment and the risk of error. Two procedural sequences are analysed, which highlight different human performance profiles that raise risks, or vulnerabilities, in physical, cognitive and psychomotor performance and task times. Future efforts need to build on these findings to include a comprehensive PRA process computationally linked to performance predictions generated from HPMs.