Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by Pacific Sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

摘要

A solar effect on streamflow in the Midwestern United States is described and supported in a six-step physical connection between total solar irradiance (TSI), tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), extratropical SSTs, jet-stream vorticity, surface-layer vorticity, precipitation, and streamflow. Variations in the correlations among the individual steps indicate that the solar/hydroclimatic mechanism is complex and has a time element (lag) that may not be constant. Correct phasing, supported by consistent spectral peaks between 0.092 and 0.096 cycles per year in all data sets within the mechanism is strong evidence for its existence. A significant correlation exists between total solar irradiance and the 3-year moving average of annual streamflow for Iowa (R=0.67) and for the Mississippi River at St Louis, Missouri (R=0.60), during the period 1950-2000.