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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Statistical complexity in daily precipitation of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the Mediterranean Basin
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Statistical complexity in daily precipitation of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the Mediterranean Basin

机译:地中海盆地NCEP / NCAR再分析日降水的统计复杂性

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摘要

This study investigates a deterministic index (I _D) for shaping regular coherent structures in meteorological and climatic variables. The developed I _D was applied to the large-scale daily precipitation series derived from the data sets of the reanalysis available from National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research for the period of 1950-2011 over the Mediterranean Basin. In order to show advantages and disadvantages of I _D, its results were compared with two other persistence indexes known in the literature. One of persistence index is estimated by using autocorrelation function (I _(ACF)), and the other is based on conditional probability (I _(CP)). Following the patterns of I _D, the low values are obtained over the countries facing the sea including Greece, Italy, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Slovenia, France, Portugal, Spain, Morocco and Tunisia, almost all of which are characterized with dry summer subtropical Mediterranean climate. On the other hand, the meaningful climatic patterns of I _(ACF) are observed only over the Mediterranean Sea. At the same time as employing I _(CP) to wet state of the precipitation series, the same patterns are obtained as I _(ACF). However, for dry state, I _(CP) produces noticeable similar patterns to I _D, generally in arid and semi-arid areas. The major results show that the patterns estimated by I _D could be better understandable in point of view of its representing traditional spatio-temporal meteorological features. That is, the patterns of I _D correspond to wellknown climatic and weather features for large-scale daily precipitation values associated with influences of the atmospheric disturbances and physical geographical features such as topography and land-sea distribution over the Mediterranean Basin.
机译:这项研究调查了确定性指标(I _D),用于确定气象和气候变量中规则的连贯结构。所开发的I_D被应用于从1950-2011年期间在地中海盆地上的国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心提供的再分析数据集得出的大规模日降水序列。为了显示I_D的优缺点,将其结果与文献中已知的其他两个持久性指标进行了比较。持久性指数之一是使用自相关函数(I _(ACF))估计的,另一个是基于条件概率(I _(CP))估计的。按照I _ D的模式,在面对大海的国家(包括希腊,意大利,土耳其,叙利亚,黎巴嫩,塞浦路斯,马其顿,阿尔巴尼亚,塞尔维亚,斯洛文尼亚,法国,葡萄牙,西班牙,摩洛哥和突尼斯)获得了较低的价值所有这些都具有干燥的夏季亚热带地中海气候。另一方面,仅在地中海上观测到有意义的I_(ACF)气候模式。在将I _(CP)用于降水序列的湿态的同时,获得与I _(ACF)相同的模式。但是,对于干燥状态,I_(CP)通常会在干旱和半干旱地区产生与I_D相似的模式。主要结果表明,从I_D估计的模式代表传统的时空气象特征的观点来看,可能会更好理解。也就是说,I_D的模式对应于与大气干扰和物理地理特征(如地中海盆地上空的地形和陆海分布)的影响相关的大规模日降水值的著名气候和天气特征。

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