Man-made climatic changes in the Ganges basin

摘要

Climate data pertaining to the Ganges basin in Bangladesh were analysed to find any climatic changes in the wake of he upstream water diversion by the Farakka Barrage. Whereas the diversions have been continuing from at least 30 international rivers upstream of Bangladesh, the diversion from the Ganges is the best known and has a wider coverage than all other diversions. The diversion reduced the Ganges' discharge through the delta by about 60% from a prediversion average value of 1932 m~3 s~(-1), decreased water availability in flood plains, ponds, canals, and ditches by about 50%, dropped the groundwater table, and caused changes in surface feature. It took about 5 years of diversions beyond the test run year of 1975 for the environment to react to set 1981 as the baseline year. During the post-baseline era: (1) heating degree days and cooling degree days were respectively 1.33 and 1.44 times more than their counterparts during the pre-baseline era; (2) the summertime nd wintertime average temperatures were respectively 1 ℃ more and 0.5 ℃ less than the corresponding values during the pre-baseline era; (3) the mode 32 ℃ of summertime maximum temperatures was 1 ℃ higher and occurred 414 times more, and the mode 25 ℃ of wintertime temperature was 1 ℃ less and occurred 17 times less than the corresponding quantities during the pre-baseline era; (4) the average value of maximum relative humidity has increased by more than 2% and that of minimum relative humidity has dropped by the same amount; (5) the mode 95% and 70% of maximum and minimum relative humidity values have occurred 1322 times and 84 times more respectively than their pre-baseline counterparts; and (6) the frequency for 100 mm or more rainfall and the monthly average rainfalls have dropped by about 50% and 30% respectively. The solution to the climatic changes lies in the restoration of the virgin Ganges flow, dredging of the Ganges and its distributaries to remove shoals and siltation, and re-excavation of canals for water discharge to depleted surface water bodies to re-establish the lost wetland ecosystems. The findings are useful for climate modellers to predict the climatic changes due to changes in surface features, for policy makers of governments of riparian countries constructing dams/barrages on international rivers for unilateral diversion of water, and for donor agencies who finance such projects.