Influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in southern China

摘要

How boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modulates the probability and spatial distributions of extreme rainfall occurrence over populous southern China was examined, using the newly proposed BSISO indices and two high-resolution rain-gauge-based rainfall datasets in China. The probability density function of May-August rainfall in southern China is skewed towards large values in phases 2-4 of the first component and in phases 5-7 of the second component of BSISO life cycle, during which the probability of extreme rainfall events at the 75th (90th) percentile increases by 30-50% (over 60%) relative to the non-BSISO period. The devastating floods with prolonged extreme rainfall in southern China over the three past decades occurred coincidently with these BSISO phases. The first component of BSISO, associated with 30-60-day eastwardortheastward-propagating ISO, is more favourable for the rainfall extreme over in-land China. In contrast, the second component of BSISO, related to the 10-30-day northwestward propagating ISO, tends to link with the rainfall extreme along the southeast coast of South China. Moisture budget indicates that the favourable environment for rainfall extreme is associated with southwesterly moisture convergence over southern China, while the moisture advection contributes insignificantly. This study suggests a potential for monitoring and probabilistic prediction of extreme rainfall events in southern China based on the real-time BSISO indices.