Interannual variability in rainy season characteristics over the Limpopo region of southern Africa

摘要

This study focuses on the interannual variability of dry spell frequencies, dry and wet spell characteristics and onset dates of the austral summer rainy season over the Limpopo region (22-25 degrees S, 27-32 degrees E) of northern South Africa. These characteristics of the rainy season are of considerable interest to farmers, water resource managers and other user groups. The Limpopo region supports a large rural population dependent on rain-fed agriculture as well as significant biodiversity, particularly in the Kruger National/Limpopo Transfrontier Park. It is also a region prone to devastating floods and droughts. Evidence is presented that summer dry spell frequency and onset date are related to ENSO via changes in regional circulation. Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear to show a robust relationship with dry spell frequency during the 1979-2002 period analysed. Anomalies in onset date of the rainy season during 1979-2002 appear to be inversely related to Nino 3.4 SST, with the relationship strengthening after 1986. These results suggest that there may be some predictability in these parameters, particularly in dry spell frequency during austral summer, based on existing skill in predicting tropical Pacific SST. Copyright (c) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.