Dendroclimatic reconstruction of May-June maximum temperatures in the central Zagros Mountains, western Iran

摘要

Long-term instrumental records that provide estimates about the natural range of long-term climate fluctuation are lacking in Iran. Ring-width chronologies were developed from two oak sites in the central Zagros Mountains, dating back to 1705A.D. Due to high correlations between the local site chronologies, a mean regional chronology (RC) was calculated. Correlations with regionalized climate data showed significant negative correlations with maximum temperature in December of the previous year and February, May, June and August of the current year. However, May-June maximum temperatures of the current growing season showed the highest negative correlation coefficient with regional tree growth patterns. Based on this relationship, maximum temperature of May-June was reconstructed over the last 170years (1840-2010). The average length of cold periods was shorter than that of warm periods. Further sampling may allow the analysis of long-term climatic trends in this region.