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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society >Climatology and recent increase of westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea derived from six reanalyses
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Climatology and recent increase of westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea derived from six reanalyses

机译:来自六次重新分析的气候学和最近在阿蒙森海上空的西风增加

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摘要

The observed acceleration of glaciers from West Antarctica into the Amundsen Sea is estimated to be contributing 6% to current sea-level rise with the estimated potential to add 0.24 m to global sea level. Stronger westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea can increase the flow of relatively warm ocean water to the base of ice shelves that flow from glaciers into the Amundsen Sea. Thinning of the glaciers caused by this warming is a potentially important factor in driving the observed acceleration of glaciers. However, the climatology of winds in the region has not been extensively studied due to a lack of in situ observational long-term records. Here six different reanalysis datasets are assessed (CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, MERRA and NNR1) to determine a best estimate of variability and change since 1979 when the widespread monitoring of the atmosphere from satellites was introduced. A comparison with independent mean sea-level pressure data from ice drifting buoys shows that ERA-Interim is clearly the most accurate at capturing the details of individual weather systems over the neighbouring Bellingshausen Sea, implying that it is also accurate over the Amundsen Sea. In terms of climatological means, the five recently-produced (after ~2000) reanalysis datasets show only small differences. Decadal variations of westerly winds congruent with the observed increases in the southern annular mode (SAM) index are a consistent feature across the reanalysis datasets. In particular, the strong seasonal dependence of observed trends in the SAM (i.e. significant positive trends in the summer and autumn in recent decades) is also seen in the strength of westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea. In terms of year-to-year variability, the annual mean westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea were found to be significantly correlated with the SAM in summer (r = 0.35; p≤0.05) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in spring (September to November) (r = 0.41; p≤0.05).
机译:据估计,从南极西部冰川到阿蒙森海的冰川加速作用,对当前海平面上升的贡献为6%,估计有可能使全球海平面增加0.24 m。阿蒙森海上较强的西风会增加相对温暖的海水流向从冰川流向阿蒙森海的冰架底部。由这种变暖引起的冰川变薄是驱动观测到的冰川加速的潜在重要因素。但是,由于缺乏长期的现场观测资料,该地区的风气候没有得到广泛研究。这里评估了六个不同的再分析数据集(CFSR,ERA-40,ERA-Interim,JRA-25,MERRA和NNR1),以确定自1979年引入卫星大气的广泛监测以来的可变性和变化的最佳估计。与来自浮冰浮标的独立平均海平面压力数据进行的比较表明,ERA-Interim显然最准确地捕获了邻近的Bellingshausen海上各个天气系统的细节,这意味着它在Amundsen海上也很准确。就气候手段而言,最近生成的五个(约2000年后)再分析数据集仅显示出很小的差异。西风的年代际变化与观测到的南部环形模式(SAM)指数增加是一致的,这在整个再分析数据集中都是一致的。尤其是,在SAM观测到的趋势中强烈的季节性依赖性(即最近几十年的夏季和秋季显着的正趋势)还体现在阿蒙森海上空的西风。就年际变化而言,发现阿蒙森海的年平均西风与夏季的SAM(r = 0.35;p≤0.05)和春季(9月至9月的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)显着相关。 11月)(r = 0.41;p≤0.05)。

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