Long-term analysis of heat waves in Ukraine

摘要

In the past few decades, severe heat waves were representative of the weather conditions in various parts of the world. They had distinctly negative impacts on humans, plants, animals and different economic sectors. Particularly in cities, where most humans are living, their well-being, efficiency and health were affected, which even caused a relatively high mortality rate. This is why a large interest still exists to analyse heat waves in the past by use of statistical methods. As an investigation on heat waves is not available for the territory of Ukraine up to now, a retrospective analysis was conducted. Its main aims were (1) to determine the frequency of heat wave episodes for this country and (2) to analyse their spatiotemporal distribution, duration and intensity. On the basis of 13 selected stations of the meteorological network of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre, daily values of maximum air temperature (T_(a,max)) in the summer months June to August were used to determine heat wave episodes according to the definition recommended by the IPCC. For all stations, complete and reliable Ta,max time series were available for the period 1951-2011. With respect to some stations, the T_(a,max) time series already started some years earlier, e.g. in 1936 for five stations and even in 1911 for four stations. However, the Ta,max time series of almost all stations had gaps in the summer months before 1951, particularly in the 1940s of the 20th century. As they could not be filled in a satisfying way, this limitation was considered in the data analysis. The results indicate that most of the heat wave episodes occurred at stations located in Eastern Ukraine. In contrast to other decades, the number of heat wave episodes was highest for almost all stations in the decade 2001-2010. The fewest heat wave episodes were determined for the two decades 1961 to 1980. The longest heat wave duration varied between 7 d in Henichesk (southern seashore) and 24 d in Lugansk (Eastern Ukraine). For many stations, the longest heat wave duration occurred in the first two decades of August 2010, i.e. in the period of the extremely severe heat wave in Western Russia. The intensity of heat waves was analysed by use of the cumulative T_(a,max) excess. The results show that heat waves of the longest duration mostly represented the strongest heat waves. The 24-d heat wave 2010 in Lugansk was the strongest in the investigation period quantified by a cumulative T_(a,max) excess of 128 ?C.