Non-parametric short-term forecasts of the Great Salt Lake using atmospheric indices

摘要

A multivariate, non-parametric model for approximating the non-linear dynamics of hydroclimatic variables is developed and applied for forecasting the volume of the Great Salt Lake (GSC) of Utah. The monthly volume of the GSL is presumed to depend on recent volumes of the lake, and on three atmospheric circulation indices. The indices considered are the Southern oscillation index (SOI), the pacific/North America (PNA) climatic index, and the central North Pacific (CNP) climatic index. Locally weighted polynomials with automatically and locally chosen parameters are used for developing a non-linear forecasting model. Estimated average mutual information (M.I) is used to select appropriate lags across each time series. Iterated and direct multi-step predictions of lake volumes for up to 2 years in the future with and without the atmospheric indices are compared. The atmospheric circulation information can lead to significant improvements in the predictability of the lake. Copyright (c) 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.