A NOVEL APPLICATION OF A CLASSICAL METHOD FOR CALCULATING THE BASIC REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER, Ro FOR A GENDER AND RISK STRUCTURED TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC MODEL OF HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTION

摘要

Mathematical models are increasingly being used in the evaluation of control strategies for infectious disease such as the vaccination program for the Human Papillomavirus (HPV). Here, an ordinary differential equation (ODE) transmission dynamic model for HPV is presented and analyzed. Parameter values for a gender and risk structured model are estimated by calibrating the model around the known prevalence of infection. The effect on gender and risk sub-group prevalence induced by varying the epidemiological parameters are investigated. Finally, the outcomes of this model are applied using a classical mathematical method for calculating Ro in a heterogeneous mixing population. Estimates for Ro under various gender and mixing scenarios are presented.