Stochastic rainfall forecasting for weekly water resource assessment in lower Assam.

摘要

Long term rainfall records of Kokrajhar and Dhubri (Assam) and Cooch-Behar (West Bengal), India, were subjected to statistical analysis and probability distribution. A range of homogeneous probability distributions were fitted in meteorological weeks in the active monsoon period. The most appropriate probability distributions were attributed to weekly rainfall amounts of 35, 10 and 10 years long data records of Kokrajhar, Dhubri and Cooch Behar, respectively using VTFIT-subroutine (Coocke, 1993). The most appropriate probability distribution was assigned to a particular meteorological week. The probability density functions were then used to forecast weekly rainfall amounts at different probability level of equalling or exceedance. Weekly water resources of the area in terms of rainfall occurrences were assessed with the help of these stochastic predictions of rainfall. The present analysis helped in formulating the guidelines for allocating water to various crops grown in the study region.