Disease prediction models in groundnut rust epidemics.

摘要

Artificial epiphytotics of groundnut rust (Puccinia arachidis) were studied in the post-rainy season crop of 1987 and rainy season crops of 1988 and 1989 in Maharashtra, India, to develop environment-based prediction models to predict rust a week before the actual appearance of the disease using the logistic and Gompertz equations. Max. temp., max. RH, sunshine hours and previous level of disease were the variables having high correlation with the disease. The Gompertz equation best linearized thedisease progress data followed by the logistic and untransformed data sets.