Cyclone occurrence still testing computer models

摘要

The threat of cyclones is an unwelcome yet unavoidable fact of life for farmers living north of the Tropic of Capricorn. On average, 12 cyclones per year occur over the whole of the Australian region, from the Indian Ocean in the west to northern Australia and the Coral Sea in north Queensland. About three make landfall on the Australian coast, although there is considerable variability in cyclone numbers from year to year. Recent climate modelling studies suggest there may be a decrease in the number of cyclones hitting Australia this century. However, climatologists are also predicting they will be more intense and more will cross the coast in more southerly locations. Since tropical cyclones are considered among the world's most destructive and costly natural hazards, weather scientists the world over are trying to better understand and predict cyclone occurrence, movement and intensity to give adequate forewarning to vulnerable communities in their paths.