A probabilistic model of the point field which enables prediction of major earthquakes by extrapolating the earthquake distribution known from the region seismic history was proposed earlier by A.M. Shurygin. If the seismic region is linear, then the accuracy of prediction can be improved by dividing the region into transform zones and replacing the distribution densities and their estimates by comparison of matrices. A new method was presented and illustrated by the prediction of earthquakes in the Kamchatka and Kuril Islands.
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