World grain outlook

摘要

World grain supplies are forecast to tighten in 2006-07 as production falls and demand continues to grow. The production forecast, at 1575 million tonnes (mt), is marginally lower than last month, mainly because of the deterioration in prospects in the EU. The world grain consumption forecast is also lowered to 1626 mt but, despite a reduction in feed use, remains 13 mt above the 2005-06 total. This reflects a further steep rise in industrial use, notably for ethanol. A rise in wheat imports, mainlyby South Asia, will boost global grains trade in 2006-07 by around three mt, to 217 mt.