Still soft west of suez but stable in india

摘要

The phosphates market is relatively stable with a bear- ish sentiment still hanging over the market west of Suez offset by markets east of Suez supported by frm Indian demand, which is the only market showing strength. India has booked four Saudi DAP cargoes for March ship- ment but no fresh Chinese DAP sales have been reported this week, which perhaps indicates tight Chinese sup- ply given that the prices paid were in the high-$480s- 490/t cfr. Although Indian demand remains frm, bids have dropped by around $2-5/t to the high-$470s/t cfr for Chinese DAP with the Indian rupee depreciating to a Rs62.75:$1 exchange rate. No sales have yet been confrmed at this lower level but India’s bargaining power may be questionable given that Chinese producers are still relatively comfortable on the back of continued demand in the domestic market while early-Q2 MAP commitments which were concluded in Q1 will also keep producers busy. But demand from the domestic market will draw to a close in the coming weeks, after which availability for export should increase. However, this should be matched by increased Indian demand. With In- dian stocks still low (just over 70,000t of DAP at the ports as of 2 March), Indian buyers should in theory purchase heavily during Q2 in time for the kharif season. Moreover, should Latin American demand kick in soon, more Chinese MAP could move to this region, although this could place additional pressure on Brazilian cfr levels.