Market outlook: downward price pressure west of Suez

摘要

Mosaic’s spot purchase at $415/t cfr Tampa has rocked the industry and many are taking this deal as a sign that February’s Tampa settlement will be heading south. Based on such expectations, some Turkish buyers are hoping that a lower Tampa price will filter through to the Black Sea, where prices have been relatively stable, before committing to any fresh sales. But there is a big discrepancy between the Yuzhny and Tampa prices, which do not currently correlate. On this basis, no Yuzhny tonnes are expected to go to the US until Black Sea export availability ramps up.