LNG To See Structural Growth On Rising Demand, Falling Output

摘要

BMI View: The attempt to utilise natural gas an alternative railway fuel points to its increasing prominence in the Indonesian energy mix, supporting our view for gas demand in the country to grow at an average rate of 4.0% per annum over 2016-2025. As surging demand comes into conflict with falling production, we expect Indonesia's historical surplus in gas to come to an end by 2021. Indonesia's decision to test the use of natural gas as an alternative railway fuel is one indicator of its growing popularity in the South Asian country. We anticipate gas demand in Indonesia to see a solid uptrend over the next decade, growing at a healthy average annual rate of 4.0% through to 2025 on account of rising demand from the power sector and other gas-intensive industries, such as the fertiliser sector (see 'Power Sector Drives Gas Consumption Growth', October 2 2015).