Testing an Earthquake Prediction Algorithm: The 2016 New Zealand and Chile Earthquakes

摘要

The 13 November 2016, M7.8, 54 km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand and the 25 December 2016, M7.6, 42 km SW of Puerto Quellon, Chile earthquakes happened outside the area of the on-going real-time global testing of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8, accepted in 1992 for the M7.5+ range. Naturally, over the past two decades, the level of registration of earthquakes worldwide has grown significantly and by now is sufficient for diagnosis of times of increased probability (TIPs) by the M8 algorithm on the entire territory of New Zealand and Southern Chile as far as below 40A degrees S. The mid-2016 update of the M8 predictions determines TIPs in the additional circles of investigation (CIs) where the two earthquakes have happened. Thus, after 50 semiannual updates in the real-time prediction mode, we (1) confirm statistically approved high confidence of the M8-MSc predictions and (2) conclude a possibility of expanding the territory of the Global Test of the algorithms M8 and MSc in an apparently necessary revision of the 1992 settings.