Oil demand is shrinking with economic recession, creating surplus capacity along the supply chain. Argus predicts a 1.2mn b/d global demand drop this year — which would be the largest annual fall since 1982. The IMF expects scarcely any growth in the world economy, as industrialised countries sink deeper into recession, dragging developing countries with them. The largest fall in oil demand will be in the first half of this year, when global sales are expected to be 2.2mn b/d down on a year earlier.
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