Is a Europe post-NATO Still Possible?

摘要

In a long interview given to The Economist in 2019, French President Macron said that "what we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO". Until 2022, the scenario he described appeared relatively close to reality. Russia was somehow perceived as less of a threat despite the annexation of Crimea in 2014, thus depriving the Alliance of its historical enemy. Since his 2016 election, President Trump harshly criticised NATO and its European members. Indeed, he considered that the US should no longer act as the "world policeman", and that US funding to the Alliance was too high compared to European contributions. In particular, he pointed to the inability of most members to meet the NATO goal of spending 2 of GDP in defence, as agreed in 2014. Moreover, Trump mainly followed a domestic agenda during his Presidency, with the notable exception of the commercial war with China. The arrival of President Biden in 2020 reassured Allies concerning reliability but did not bring substantial changes in Washington's political focus, at least for the first year. Additionally, the hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan, which constituted the bulk of NATO's military missions, seemed to bring the organisation's purpose into question.