Shale rider

摘要

Opec’s policy of allowing its own low-cost production to edge out that of highercost non-Opec supply is often miscast as an attack on US tight oil output. Without question, shale is where the most immediate impact has been. High well decline rates and comparatively short project lead times in the shale regions have seen to that. But Opec - following the lead of Saudi Arabia - has always been playing a long game, targeting all high-cost non-Opec production. That is going to eventually limit the growth of deepwater, Arctic, Canadian and North Sea oil, among others. Tight oil’s longer-term future appears relatively buoyant by comparison.