Barrel counters track US rig data

摘要

Falling US rig counts signal an imminent turning point for tight oil output. But halting year-on-year growth in non-Opec supply will take much longer. Oil markets are looking for signs that supply is tightening, but so far have little to go on. Global oil production in the fourth quarter was more than 3mn b/d higher than a year earlier after Opec refused to cut output in the face of growing competition from non-Opec. January data show no let up in the rapid rate of growth (see graph below). Opec hopes that US tight oil output will react quickly. “You cannot continually protect a certain price. That is not the aim of Opec,” UAE oil minister Suhail Mohamed Faraj al-Mazrouei says. Oversupply comes “primarily from shale oil and that needed to be corrected”, he says. Tight oil production from US shale formations rose by 1.2mn b/d in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the EIA Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) says.