False dusk

摘要

Oil’s history is plagued with false dusks, talk of peaks that do not materialise. Mostly, they relate to supply. Peak oil production has been imminent since at least the 1970s, only to be repeatedly delayed by new discoveries and technological advances, most recently in North America’s shale revolution. Forecasters also now talk of peak demand, which carries its own difficulties. Oil is a finite commodity and must have peaks. Getting the timing of those peaks right is complicated by the known unknowns of technology, the economy and government policies. There is, however, a compelling logic to the IEA’s forecast of a peak in oil demand growth in the next five years.